FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM FLOWS RECORDED IN THE UPPER JURUÁ RIVER BASIN, ACRE, BRAZIL

Autores

  • José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Marcelo Alves Muniz Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Gerbson Francisco Nogueira Maia Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Anderson de Azevedo Mesquita Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Livia Braz Pereira Universidade Federal do Acre
  • Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano Universidade Federal do Acre

Palavras-chave:

cheias extremas, modelos probabilísticos, análise de frequência

Resumo

The risk associated with extreme floods is manageable and can be reduced, as it relates both to the probability of occurrence of a dangerous event and to the expectation of losses caused by it. In this sense, frequency analysis through probabilistic modeling of hydrological variables is an important tool. The present study aimed at investigating the probabilistic model that best fits the series of maximum flows recorded in the Upper Juruá River basin (Acre, Brazil), highlighting the probability associated with the recurrence of the main quantifying reference. It was concluded that generalized extreme value (GEV) and two-parameter lognormal (LN2) are the recommended distributions for Cruzeiro do Sul and GEV for Marechal Thaumaturgo, whose decision was supported by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests. LN2 proved to be more rigorous with a return time of more than 50 years for flows in Cruzeiro do Sul.

Biografia do Autor

José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira, Universidade Federal do Acre

Professor Doutor da Universidade Federal do Acre

Marcelo Alves Muniz, Universidade Federal do Acre

Mestrando em Ciências Ambientais na Universidade Federal do Acre

Gerbson Francisco Nogueira Maia, Universidade Federal do Acre

Doutorando em Ciência Animal na Universidade Federal do Acre

Anderson de Azevedo Mesquita, Universidade Federal do Acre

Doutorando em Geografia da Universidade Federal de Rondônia

Livia Braz Pereira, Universidade Federal do Acre

Acadêmica de Engenharia Agronômica da Universidade Federal do Acre

Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano, Universidade Federal do Acre

Professor Doutor da Universidade Federal do Acre

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Publicado

2020-07-28

Como Citar

do Vale Moreira, J. G., Alves Muniz, M., Nogueira Maia, G. F., de Azevedo Mesquita, A. ., Braz Pereira, L., & Peréa Serrano, R. O. (2020). FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM FLOWS RECORDED IN THE UPPER JURUÁ RIVER BASIN, ACRE, BRAZIL. South American Journal of Basic Education, Technical and Technological , 7(2), 23–36. Recuperado de https://teste-periodicos.ufac.br/index.php/SAJEBTT/article/view/3401

Edição

Seção

Artigos Originais Ciências Exatas e da Terra